Chart markers:▼ crisis / crash,
◆ war or geopolitical event,
▲ positive event / bull-market start. Data sources:
Stocks = S&P 500 Total Return (price + dividends).
Bonds = US 10Y Treasury, approx. TR (const. duration d = 8).
Money market = US 3M T-Bill (FRED 1934+).
Inflation = US CPI.
CZK/USD = OECD via FRED (from 01-1991).
Gold = World Bank Pink Sheet (London PM Fix) from 01-1960; pre-1960 backfilled from the
gold-standard fixed price ($20.67/oz through 1933, $35/oz 1934–1959 per Gold Reserve Act / Bretton Woods).
CZ real estate = Eurostat House Price Index (quarterly, from 03-2008).
US real estate = Shiller Long-Term Home Price Index + Case-Shiller (from 06-1890).
A flat 3 % p.a. net rental yield (after costs) is added on top of the price index.
Before data starts (CZ pre-2008, US pre-1890) we substitute inflation as the growth rate.
Sources: Shiller (Yale), FRED (Fed. Reserve), Eurostat, World Bank, Yahoo Finance.
Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. For illustration only.
Markets / assets
Your allocation
Chart markers:▼ crisis / crash,
◆ war or geopolitical event,
▲ positive event / bull-market start. Comparison shows each asset in pure form (100 % of that market) plus your allocation from the main panel.
Each button toggles its own curve; all of them use the same lump sum and monthly contribution.
Gold: World Bank Pink Sheet from 01-1960; before that the gold-standard fixed price ($20.67/oz through 1933, $35/oz 1934–1959).
Real estate shows the selected market (CZ or US – switch in the main panel) as a price index + 3 % p.a. net rental yield;
for periods without data (CZ pre-2008, US pre-1890) we substitute inflation as the growth rate.
Calculations respect the Nominal/Real and CZK/USD switches.
Positive periods
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Median CAGR p.a.
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Best p.a.
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Worst p.a.
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Historical windows
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Methodology: The chart walks every possible starting month in history, simulates the selected horizon and allocation,
and shows how often an investor ended up in each band of average annual return (CAGR). It respects the selected currency and the nominal/real setting.
The longer the horizon, the fewer negative outcomes appear in history.
History shows a trend, not your specific portfolio.
A real portfolio must match your goals, horizon and risk tolerance. I'll build one tailored for you – free, no-obligation consultation.
